Aperture on the city...

Endgame Iraq!

While American politicians bicker about the definition and operationalization of US victory in Iraq, it would be invaluable to gain insights into Iraqi perspectives of "victory." After decades under the bleeding edge of Saddam's scimitar, a foreign invasion and occupation and enduring politico-sectarian dichotomies, what does VICTORY mean to an Iraqi. Of course the question would be answered differently depending on the Iraqi of whom a response is sought. During the days of the eight year long Iran-iraq war, one could imagine the a nationalistic fervor would have motivated a majority of Iraqis to envision a victory over Iran (simplistic postulation, I must admit). However, the complexity enshrouding Iraq today paints a murky mosaic of constituencies in conflict, divergent interests and countervailing means to achieve aspired ends.

A simplistic identification of constituencies in Iraq reveals sectarian differentiation - Shia, Sunni and Kurd. However, within these huge swaths of identity are polarizing group and personality dynamics. A coulple of weeks ago, the International Herald Tribune cast Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr as Iraq's potential kingmaker. Then earlier this week, former Iraqi PM, Iyad Allawi was shoed out of a mosque, purportedly by Al-Sadr's supporters. If any lesson could be drawn from the events of the last couple of weeks, it is the fact that collaboration with Allied occupiers would not sit well with the majority in a "majoritarian" Iraq.

While Allawi has put himself above sectarian politics, his interests to rule Iraq run head on into Ahmed Chalabi's agenda for Iraq. However, the real kingmaker could very well be Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader who seems to even enjoy the support of his political nemesis, Massoud Barzani. However, what is the Kurdish perception of victory in Iraq.

A majoritarian consensus of victory in Iraq would be Saddam's demise. However, with a nagging insurgency hacking at the spirit of the Iraqi people, there is the need for new perceptions of victory. It ought to be a perception of victory, which involves the United States as friend rather than the US as foe.

Pundits...

I'm not sure why it frustrates me that political "scientists" no longer emphasize the redictive component of their "science." There was once a time - 1948- when the Roper Poll committed to Dewey defeating Truman. Guess what, they even went so far as to convince the Chicago Daily Tribune to run an early headline "Dewey defeats Truman" as the vote count wore on through the night. I wasn't born then, but I relish the return of that era of prediction.

While in retrospect, the Roper Poll could be accused of sloppy polling, today's pundits, armed with instantaneous polling and news gathering technology remain prediction-shy. The political arena in the United States needs individuals who look at the numbers, the candidates, voter demographics, the issues and candidate messaging to predict winners and losers within some degree of confidence!!

November 2006 is fast approaching and the defining issues of these mid-term elections will be Iraq and the Economy. The candidates for both political parties are still emerging. The middle-ground would be more invigorated than the party bases, in an attempt to sway the vote. Races in Maryland will be pivotal (Senate replacement for Sarbanes, Democratic Party Gubernatorial primaries etc). Candidate messaging would steer clear of the negative campaigning which pervaded the recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. Hence candidates will be obliged to face the issues, define them according to personal (rather than party) perspectives, and market these issues to a rapidly changing demographic structure. It promises to be an interesting political season and I look forward to making and reading predictions as the races become clearer.

Passing Bye...

Trapped in the echoes of my daily chores, the places I see become a passing blur, locked up in some vaulted memory. Then I stop to behold the sights, hear the sounds and breathe the fumes My own insanity is superceded by the mechnical accuracy surrounding me. In this moment of pause, I embrace the difference between the sights & sounds I now take for granted and the beauty of my childhood. It was a childhodd - far from pristine - yet ensconced in a bossom much closer to nature. Back then, I also took the beauty of the cattle grazing on the lush rolling summer hills for granted. It seems the heart's eternal quest to desire that which is distant rather than appreciate the present for what it is worth. In that dialectic lies the utopia of happiness in whatever present we can deal with.