Pundits...

I'm not sure why it frustrates me that political "scientists" no longer emphasize the redictive component of their "science." There was once a time - 1948- when the Roper Poll committed to Dewey defeating Truman. Guess what, they even went so far as to convince the Chicago Daily Tribune to run an early headline "Dewey defeats Truman" as the vote count wore on through the night. I wasn't born then, but I relish the return of that era of prediction.

While in retrospect, the Roper Poll could be accused of sloppy polling, today's pundits, armed with instantaneous polling and news gathering technology remain prediction-shy. The political arena in the United States needs individuals who look at the numbers, the candidates, voter demographics, the issues and candidate messaging to predict winners and losers within some degree of confidence!!

November 2006 is fast approaching and the defining issues of these mid-term elections will be Iraq and the Economy. The candidates for both political parties are still emerging. The middle-ground would be more invigorated than the party bases, in an attempt to sway the vote. Races in Maryland will be pivotal (Senate replacement for Sarbanes, Democratic Party Gubernatorial primaries etc). Candidate messaging would steer clear of the negative campaigning which pervaded the recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. Hence candidates will be obliged to face the issues, define them according to personal (rather than party) perspectives, and market these issues to a rapidly changing demographic structure. It promises to be an interesting political season and I look forward to making and reading predictions as the races become clearer.