Endgame Iraq!

While American politicians bicker about the definition and operationalization of US victory in Iraq, it would be invaluable to gain insights into Iraqi perspectives of "victory." After decades under the bleeding edge of Saddam's scimitar, a foreign invasion and occupation and enduring politico-sectarian dichotomies, what does VICTORY mean to an Iraqi. Of course the question would be answered differently depending on the Iraqi of whom a response is sought. During the days of the eight year long Iran-iraq war, one could imagine the a nationalistic fervor would have motivated a majority of Iraqis to envision a victory over Iran (simplistic postulation, I must admit). However, the complexity enshrouding Iraq today paints a murky mosaic of constituencies in conflict, divergent interests and countervailing means to achieve aspired ends.

A simplistic identification of constituencies in Iraq reveals sectarian differentiation - Shia, Sunni and Kurd. However, within these huge swaths of identity are polarizing group and personality dynamics. A coulple of weeks ago, the International Herald Tribune cast Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr as Iraq's potential kingmaker. Then earlier this week, former Iraqi PM, Iyad Allawi was shoed out of a mosque, purportedly by Al-Sadr's supporters. If any lesson could be drawn from the events of the last couple of weeks, it is the fact that collaboration with Allied occupiers would not sit well with the majority in a "majoritarian" Iraq.

While Allawi has put himself above sectarian politics, his interests to rule Iraq run head on into Ahmed Chalabi's agenda for Iraq. However, the real kingmaker could very well be Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader who seems to even enjoy the support of his political nemesis, Massoud Barzani. However, what is the Kurdish perception of victory in Iraq.

A majoritarian consensus of victory in Iraq would be Saddam's demise. However, with a nagging insurgency hacking at the spirit of the Iraqi people, there is the need for new perceptions of victory. It ought to be a perception of victory, which involves the United States as friend rather than the US as foe.